GDP Beats Forecasts, Gig Economy Influences Claims

Delayed government data shows the economy grew faster than expected in Q3, while the gig economy continues to influence unemployment claims. Here’s a look at the key highlights.

·      Q3 GDP Surges Past Forecasts

·      Claims Data Reflects Seasonal and Gig Economy Trends

Q3 GDP Surges Past Forecasts

After a delay caused by the government shutdown, the first estimate of third quarter 2025 GDP was released – and it exceeded expectations. The U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annualized pace, well above the 3.3% forecast.

Growth also accelerated from 3.8% in Q2 and marked a sharp rebound from the 0.6% contraction in Q1. Through the first nine months of the year, the economy is now averaging 2.5% growth.

What’s the bottom line? GDP is a key measure of economic health, reflecting consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports. Consumer spending – the largest component – was especially strong last quarter, driven in part by a surge in electric vehicle purchases ahead of the EV tax credit expiration at the end of Q3.

Stronger exports and increased government spending also supported growth, helping offset weaker investment. In addition, a decline in imports – which subtract from GDP – provided a further boost to the overall figure.

Claims Data Reflects Seasonal and Gig Economy Trends

Initial Jobless Claims declined by 10,000 in the latest week, with 214,000 individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Meanwhile, Continuing Claims – which track those still receiving benefits after an initial filing – increased by 38,000 to 1.923 million.

What’s the bottom line? First-time claims remain relatively low, likely reflecting seasonal factors such as employers holding off on layoffs ahead of the holidays, as well as the influence of the gig economy. A growing number of displaced workers are opting for contract or app-based work rather than filing for unemployment, as benefit levels often fall short of covering housing, living expenses and insurance.

At the same time, Continuing Claims remain elevated, hovering near four-year highs. This pattern often occurs when employers slow hiring, keeping people on benefits longer.