Stocks are mixed and Mortgage Bonds are sharply lower to start the day. The future direction of Mortgage Bonds will likely be determined by tomorrow's CPI inflation report.
MBS Highway Housing Index
The MBS Highway National Housing Index in November 2024 fell 9 points to 31. In November 2023, the index stood at 35.
The national Buyer Activity sub-index plummeted 15 points to 24 in November 2024. The sharp fall in mortgage rates over the prior four months gave an unseasonal boost to the Buyer Activity sub-index. This trend reversed aggressively this month, with mortgage rates rebounding nearly 100 basis points. In November 2023, the national Buyer-Activity sub-index was at 20.
The national Price Direction sub-index fell 4 points to 37 in November 2024. A year ago, the national Price Direction sub-index was at 41.
September CPI Preview
The most important data point this week will be the October Consumer Price Index, which will be released tomorrow.
Market estimates are as follows:
CPI Headline: 0.2% monthly reading, year over year to increase to 2.6% from 2.4%
CPI Core: 0.3% monthly reading, year over year to increase to 3.4% from 3.3%
News This Week
Tomorrow: CPI, Mortgage Applications
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, PPI
Technical Analysis
Mortgage Bonds opened beneath their 200-day Moving Average in the middle of a wide range with support roughly 23 bps lower at the 100.43 Fibonacci level.
The 10-year is in a wide range of its own between support at the 4.332% Fibonacci Level and a ceiling at 4.491%.
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