Stocks are mixed and Mortgage Bonds slightly lower so far this morning.
According to Coresight, store closures are up 70% from last year. Here is a list of some of the announced store closings and how many stores will be impacted:
Store Closings & Average Duration of Unemployment
This is just the number of stores, not the number of employees, and is just in the retail sector. We also know that the restaurant industry has been struggling as well. Many of these have yet to impact the jobs numbers yet, but when they do, may show up in the unemployment rate, which could help rates.
And the median duration of unemployment has been on the rise and is at the highest level since 2021 at 10.5 weeks. This metric is up 21% in the last seven months and coincides with continuing claims, which is around 1.9M, the highest level also since 2021.
This shows that once let go, it’s becoming increasingly harder to find a job. With the additional closures, and it being hard to find a job, we could start to see the unemployment rate tick up in Q1, which would help rates.
Additionally, the final QCEW data will come out in February, which is likely to show that roughly half the jobs the BLS said happened in 2024 did not occur – The combination of these things may pressure to Fed to change their tone.
Week Ahead
The market will be closing early on tomorrow on Christmas Eve and closed all day on Christmas. We will not have a morning update on either day, but will resume on the 26th. We hope you have a wonderful Christmas and Hannukah Holiday if you celebrate.
Technical Analysis
Mortgage Bonds are trading in a narrow range between support at 100.43 and overhead resistance at 100.61. We anticipate it to be a quiet start to the week with the holidays.
The 10-year is trading in a range between support at 4.50% and resistance at 4.59%.
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