Stocks are mixed and Mortgage Bonds are lower to start the day following the release of Retail Sales and new Jobless Claims data.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for the month of January was reported at 44.3, which was much higher than last month’s -11 and also far higher than estimates of -5. This is the highest reading since April 2021 and may be explained by manufacturing pulling orders forward and stockpiling inventory ahead of potential tariffs.
Beige Book
The Fed released their Beige Book yesterday, which provides an economic health update on each of the Fed's twelve districts. This can be important because the Fed has indicated that they are not just looking at the BLS jobs data or other published reports, as they can be somewhat unreliable and have been susceptible to huge revisions. Instead, they check that data against what their business contacts are saying. Though not usually market moving, the Beige Book provides an important check on the strength we have been seeing in recent economic data releases.
Retail Sales
Retail Sales rose 0.4% in December, which was weaker than estimates of 0.6%. Additionally, last month’s figure was revised higher by 0.1%.
The most important reading, which is Core Retail Sales and gets factored into GDP, rose 0.7%, which was higher than the 0.4% estimate.
Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims, which measures individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, rose 14,000 last week to 217,000.
Continuing Claims, which measures individuals continuing to receive benefits after their initial claim, fell 18,000 to 1.86M.
Technical Analysis
Mortgage Bonds are trading in the middle of a wide range with 99.89 as a floor and a ceiling at the 100.43 Fibonacci Level.
The 10-year is also trading in the middle of a range between a ceiling at 4.735% and a floor at the 4.588% Fibonacci Level. We'll need to be on guard for whipsaws while both MBS and Treasury Yields are in such wide ranges.
Get notifications when agents you follow schedule open houses, complete a transaction with another loan originator, post a new listing, or share content on social media.Start your trial now so you never miss an opportunity to connect with new or existing referral partners.
Create 60 second videos for clients with Social Studio, and take advantage of social share assets that help you start conversations and highlight the benefits of buying.
Show clients how they can take advantage of a cash-out refinance or restructure their debt to save them years of mortgage payments, or demonstrate how debt consolidation can bridge the gap in payment differential on a more expensive home. With personal debt balances at an all-time high, use Debt Consolidation to help your clients achieve their financial goals and gain a better position to build wealth for their family.
Demonstrate how delaying a purchase for even a year or two could cost buyers thousands in appreciation, amortization, equity and more. Increase deal flow by showing clients how delaying their purchase could have more of an impact on their long-term wealth than they realize.