December 2025 MBS Highway Housing Index

The MBS Highway National Housing Index rose 3 points in December 2025 to 27. A year ago, the index stood at 32. Lower mortgage rates have yet to significantly boost transaction activity, but should provide a tailwind as the seasonal upswing gets going in January.

National Data
In December, the MBS Highway National Housing Index recovered the 3 points it had lost in November to reach 27. A year ago, the overall index was 5 points higher at 32, despite average mortgage rates being ~50 basis points higher than they are today! That said, we typically see the index start its seasonal upswing in January — and lower rates/improved affordability should help.

As a reminder, an index reading of 50 serves as the dividing line between contraction (below 50) and expansion (above 50). The overall index has been in contraction territory since June 2024, when it hit 53.

Buyer activity gained 3 points to 27, similar to the level from a year ago (26). 58% of respondents nationwide described current buyer activity as slow. Price direction recovered 2 points to 26, down significantly from 38 in December 2024. 54% of respondents nationwide indicated that they were seeing price reductions in their local markets.

Regional Data
In December 2025, six out of seven regions saw increases in buyer activity. However, apart from the Northeast (+11 to 44) and West (+7 to 30), these improvements were modest. Buyer activity was lowest in the Northwest (-6 to 18) and highest in the Northeast.

Price direction also recovered slightly, with four out of six regions moving up, two regions declining, and one flat. The Northeast saw the biggest increase (+15 to 50), followed by the Midwest (+6 to 40). The regions seeing the most downward pressure were the Southwest (flat at 15), Southeast (+1 to 18) and Northwest (-4 to 21).

Question of the Month
’Tis the season for housing market forecasts, so we asked our customers: What’s your own prediction for national home prices in 2026?

• Up 0–10%
• About flat
• Down 0–5%

Overall, 58% of respondents said that they expect prices to rise in 2026, with 32% forecasting flattish prices, and 10% predicting price drops. Somewhat surprisingly, there was very little variation in the forecasts regionally. In the Northeast, where the local price direction has been strongest, 56% of respondents saw prices rising nationwide. In the Southwest, where local price direction has been weakest, 57% saw prices rising nationwide.