February 2025 MBS Highway Housing Index

The MBS Highway National Housing Index rose five points in February 2025, as both buyer activity and price direction saw seasonal increases, albeit less pronounced than last year.

National Data

The MBS Highway National Housing Index in February 2025 rose 5 points month-over-month to 41. This compares with a 12 point gain at the same time last year (42 → 54). As a reminder, an index level of 50 represents the breakeven point between contraction (<50) and expansion (>50). In general, while market sentiment today is stronger than it was in early-2023, it is much weaker than it was in early 2024.

The Buyer Activity sub-index rose for the third-straight month, climbing 8 points to 38. However, the normal seasonal upswing has been much less pronounced than last year (+16 points to 49). This despite average 30-year mortgage rates being roughly the same in both periods (~7%), and the inventory of homes for sale being 20–25% higher.

The national Price Direction sub-index also rose for the third-straight month, adding 2 points to reach 44. A year ago at this time, the national Price Direction sub-index jumped 8 points to hit 60, with all seven regions boasting Price Direction sub-indexes above the 50 breakeven point. Today, only two regions are in expansion territory: Northeast (68) and Mid-Atlantic (61), while the West (50) is nearly there.

Regional Data

In February 2025, Buyer Activity levels rose in all seven regions, with the Northwest (+14) and West (+13) regions showing the largest monthly increase, and the Northeast remaining the most active (46). The smallest monthly increase came from the Southeast (+3), which was also the least active region (32). No regions saw Buyer Activity above the 50 breakeven. This time last year, four markets were in expansion territory.

Six of the seven regions also saw their Price Direction sub-indexes move higher. The Northwest (+11), Northeast (+10) and Mid-Atlantic (+9) regions all saw nice increases in their Price Direction sub-indexes, while the West and Southwest saw very modest increases. The Southeast, in contrast, saw a 5-point decline (35 → 30) and had the weakest price momentum overall.

“Our overall index improved for the third-straight month, as real estate professionals geared up for the spring selling season. But things are still a bit cooler than they were at the same time last year. Near-term trends in inflation show that we’re approaching the Fed’s 2% target (for “core” PCE), but the bond market remains skeptical, only pricing in 1–2 Fed rate cuts during 2025,” said Barry Habib, MBS Highway’s Founder and CEO.