Government Reopens, Fed Awaits Data

The government has reopened, ADP’s weekly report highlights late-October job declines, and home prices show renewed strength. Here’s what you need to know.

·       Government Reopens: When Will Data Releases Resume?

·       ADP Data Points to Job Losses in Late October

·       Home Values Gain Momentum

·       Retail Sales Rebound in October

Government Reopens: When Will Data Releases Resume?

The recent government shutdown paused key economic reports – including data on inflation, jobs, retail sales, new home sales and GDP. Now that the government has reopened, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and other agencies are expected to release an updated schedule for these reports.

What’s the bottom line? These data points are critical for the Federal Reserve as it prepares for its final meeting of the year on December 9-10. The Fed faces a delicate balancing act: curbing inflation without undermining the labor market. Chair Jerome Powell recently noted there’s “no risk-free path” forward, emphasizing that the committee remains divided.

He also cautioned that another rate cut in December “is not a foregone conclusion – far from it.” Any new labor or inflation data released before the meeting could heavily influence the Fed’s next move.

Quick refresher: When the Fed changes interest rates, it adjusts the Federal Funds Rate – the short-term rate banks charge each other. While this doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, it strongly influences them, along with broader economic trends.

ADP Data Points to Job Losses in Late October

ADP’s most recent monthly report showed private payrolls rose by 42,000 in October, reflecting modest job growth through the reference week that includes the 12th – the standard period used to align with government reporting. But ADP’s new weekly report, which tracks pay data in near real time, shows U.S. companies cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25.

What’s the bottom line? The weekly figures suggest the labor market slowed in late October after a relatively stronger start to the month. With official government data still catching up, ADP’s readings offer an important glimpse into labor market momentum heading into year-end.

Home Values Gain Momentum

ICE’s latest Mortgage Monitor reported a 0.15% month-over-month increase in home prices (seasonally adjusted) for October – the largest gain since March. Annual appreciation also ticked up 0.9%, ending nine consecutive months of slowing growth and signaling fresh momentum in the housing market.

What’s the bottom line? ICE’s findings follow Cotality’s recent projection that home prices will rise 4.1% over the next year, slightly higher than the previous 3.9% forecast. Real estate remains one of the most reliable ways to build long-term wealth. For example, a $500,000 home appreciating at 4% annually would gain $20,000 in just one year – a clear reminder of the enduring value of homeownership.

Retail Sales Rebound in October

After declining in September, retail sales bounced back in October, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). Seven of nine retail categories posted monthly gains, and year-over-year growth was solid, with all but two categories showing increases – led by digital products, clothing stores and sporting goods stores.

What’s the bottom line? With the government’s official retail sales report delayed by the recent shutdown, alternate data sources like the NRF’s report have filled an important gap. The Fed will likely continue to review these private-sector insights as it assesses consumer spending – a key signal of economic strength – heading into its December policy meeting.