October 2025 MBS Highway Housing Index

The MBS Highway National Housing Index was flat in October 2025 at 27. A year ago, the index was at 40. So far, our survey respondents are seeing a limited boost to transaction volumes from mortgage rates trending lower over the last three months.

National Data
The MBS Highway National Housing Index was unchanged in October 2025 at 27. In October 2024, the index stood at 40. The housing market is clearly much cooler (lower buyer activity levels, more price reductions) than it was at the same time last year. That being said, the flat index performance is actually something of a positive surprise. Our index typically falls month-over-month in October as the seasonal slowdown gains force.

As a reminder, an index reading of 50 serves as the dividing line between contraction (below 50) and expansion (above 50). The overall index has not exceeded 50 since June 2024, when it last reached 53.

Buyer activity was steady at 29, but that was still down from 39 a year ago. 55% of respondents nationwide described current buyer activity as slow.

Price direction rose 1 point to 25, compared to 41 in October 2024, reflecting rising inventory levels and weaker price momentum nationwide. 57% of respondents nationwide indicated that they were seeing price reductions in their local markets.

Regional Data
In October 2025, five out of seven regions saw an increase in buyer activity. The largest increases came from the Northwest (+14 to 39) and Northeast (+12 to 59), while the Midwest, West, and Southwest all saw one-point gains. The Mid-Atlantic region, however, saw a sizeable decline (-15 to 39).

Price direction was more mixed, with four regions up and three regions down. The Midwest saw the largest increase (+6 to 41); the Mid-Atlantic, the largest decrease (-13 to 43). The regions seeing the weakest price momentum continue to be Southwest, Northwest, and Southeast.

Question of the Month
How has the recent drop in mortgage rates affected transaction volumes? Average 30-year mortgage rates (Source: Freddie Mac PMMS) have been below 6.75% for the last 2.5 months, and below 6.50% for the last month. With that in mind, in your local market are you seeing:

• Little to no change in either refi or purchase activity,
• Strong increase in refi activity; modest uptick in purchase activity, or
• Strong increase in both refi and purchase activity?

Overall, 58% of respondents said that they were seeing little change in refi or purchase activity. However, over one-third (34%) of respondents said that they were seeing a strong increase in refi activity. The regions seeing the greatest impact were the West (41% seeing a strong increase in refi activity) and the Midwest (40%).

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