Shutdown Delays Data, Job Growth Stalls

Private sector job losses in September take on added importance with the official government report delayed by the shutdown. In housing, contract signings rose in August as lower rates sparked demand. Read on for more key takeaways.

• Private Sector Job Growth Stalls in September
• Government Shutdown Delays Crucial Jobs Data
• Job Openings Remain Subdued
• Annual Home Price Growth Moderates
• Pending Home Sales See Strong Rebound

Private Sector Job Growth Stalls in September

The private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September, according to ADP – a sharp miss compared to expectations of a 50,000-job gain. August's numbers were also revised down significantly, from a gain of 54,000 to a loss of 3,000.

Job losses were broad-based: small businesses cut 40,000 jobs and medium-sized firms lost 20,000. Seven out of ten sectors reported declines. However, education and health services stood out, adding 33,000 jobs. Large companies (500+ employees) also added 33,000 jobs.

Wage growth remained stronger for job switchers, who saw a 6.6% annual increase – though that's down from 7.1% in August. Workers who stayed in their jobs saw a 4.5% gain.

What’s the bottom line? Job growth is slowing. The private sector has now posted losses in three of the past four months. As ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson put it: “Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring.”

Government Shutdown Delays Crucial Jobs Data

The ADP report carries added weight this month, as the government shutdown has delayed the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) official September jobs report (originally scheduled for release on October 3), along with weekly unemployment claims data.

What’s the bottom line? This delay comes at a critical time. The Fed is balancing two competing forces: inflation that remains above target and increasing signs of a slowing economy. That tension was reflected in the Fed’s September 17 rate cut, where officials cited “rising downside risks to employment.”

The BLS jobs report was expected to play a key role in shaping the Fed’s next move at its October 29 meeting. In its absence, the ADP data takes on more importance than usual in guiding expectations.

Quick refresher: When the Fed adjusts interest rates, it's changing the Federal Funds Rate – the short-term rate banks charge each other. This doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but it influences them, along with other economic indicators.

Job Openings Remain Subdued

Job openings in August edged up slightly to 7.227 million, roughly in line with expectations. July’s figure was also revised modestly higher. Still, the overall trend is decisively downward – openings have dropped sharply from a peak of over 12 million in 2022.

Adding to the signs of labor market softness: the hiring rate (3.2%) and the quit rate (1.9%) remain near decade lows (excluding the pandemic). These figures suggest weaker demand for workers and reduced confidence among employees to voluntarily change jobs.

What’s the bottom line? Taken together, the data suggests the labor market is losing steam – and the true number of job opportunities may be overstated. Many remote roles are posted in multiple states, inflating the total number of unique listings.

Another indicator of cooling: the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has dropped from over 2:1 in 2022 to just under 1:1 – a significant shift toward a tighter job market.

Annual Home Price Growth Moderates

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index – often seen as the gold standard for measuring home values – showed a slight monthly decline in July, both before and after seasonal adjustments. Nationally, prices are still up 1.7% from a year ago, a bit slower than June’s 1.9% annual gain.

The FHFA Index also showed a small monthly drop and a 2.3% annual increase. Unlike Case-Shiller, FHFA only includes homes bought with conventional mortgages – excluding cash and jumbo loan purchases.

What’s the bottom line? While home prices remain higher than a year ago, growth is clearly slowing. But if mortgage rates continue to fall, stronger demand could put upward pressure on prices once again.

Pending Home Sales See Strong Rebound

Pending home sales jumped 4% in August compared to July and were up 3.8% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). This metric tracks signed contracts on existing homes and typically signals closing activity within the next one to two months.

What’s the bottom line? The rebound in existing home contract signings mirrors similar gains in new home sales (also based on contract signings) reported for August. This uptick came as mortgage rates began trending slightly lower in late summer. Rates had already started to ease from July levels – and have fallen further in September – suggesting future reports could show even stronger activity.

‍