Happy 4th of July! If you can pull yourself away from the hamburgers and fireworks, we’ve got a very interesting look at home prices vs. inventory across the nation.

The subdued spring continues, with the inventory of new and existing homes for sale rising, and weaker home price growth than normal for this time of year. The Fed kept interest rates on hold: still worried about the impact of tariffs on inflation, and still comforted by the low unemployment rate.

The May BLS job report looked strong on the surface, but large (and consistent) downward revisions to prior months suggest that the labor market is loosening up more than the Fed lets on. Also, the May CPI report turned out much better (that is, lower) than feared.

Light at the end of the inflation tunnel? The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — PCE — is getting pretty close to their 2% target. But how close is close enough for the Fed to resume cutting rates?

It’s the high season for moving house, but transaction volumes, home price growth and competition levels have been cooler than usual for this time of year. Mortgage rates are a big part of it; economic uncertainty is another factor.

Not a great week for real estate, with disappointing existing home sales in April and higher mortgage rates thanks (in part) to the Moody’s downgrade of the USA’s sovereign credit rating.

Tariff-on, tariff-off. Tariff-on, tariff-off. Is this a macroeconomic Karate Kid? It’s become very difficult to interpret the latest data, which is mostly ‘before’ Trump’s reciprocal tariffs took effect — but what will they look like ‘after’? That’s what’s on Fed Chairman Powell’s mind.

Homebuyers have more options to choose from than they’ve had in 5 years, but relatively high mortgage rates and still-rising home prices are keeping the spring selling season subdued.

In a normal market, flat PCE (inflation), slower job growth and contracting GDP would have caused a rally in bond prices and a fall in bond yields (and mortgage rates). But with the market braced for widespread economic impact, pre-tariff data is being largely ignored.

Despite all the economic uncertainty, better weather and more homes for sale is bringing the buyers out! Let’s keep things positive, folks!

It was a wild, wild week, with stock and bond markets moving violently up and down in response to the Trump tariffs, China’s retaliation, and growing recession fears. But let’s bring it back to real estate, where the spring inventory increase is underway!

‘Liberation Day’ brought little joy to financial markets globally, with stock markets down big and recession risks (for the US and elsewhere) ratcheting higher. The silver lining for the real estate market is that 10-Year US Treasury Bond yields fell to near 4% on April 3, and that could see average mortgage rates drop to near 6.5%.