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Talking Points
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Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Bang'
October 10, 2024
It’s been a tough week for homebuyers, with stronger September jobs growth sending bond prices lower and mortgage rates higher.
Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Drift'
October 3, 2024
Mortgage rates have drifted higher since the Fed rate cut, as job openings (JOLTs) and job growth (ADP) came out stronger than expected, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell talked up the economy’s strength.
Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Pending'
September 26, 2024
With mortgage rates down sharply in the last 5 months, the volume of refinancing is already up big. But we have yet to see those lower rates translate to increased homebuyer demand.
Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Fifty'
September 19, 2024
An aggressive start to the Fed’s new easing cycle, with a 50 basis points rate cut announced on Wednesday.
Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Low Sixes'
September 12, 2024
The big story this week is 30-yr mortgage rates, which are already in the low sixes as the market anticipates multiple Fed rate cuts (and perhaps a recession) ahead.
Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Slack'
September 6, 2024
“Jobs week” has so far delivered a very consistent message — hiring is slowing and layoffs are rising. We know that rate cuts will start on September 18. But will we get a 25 or 50 basis point cut?
Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Adjust'
August 30, 2024
It’s time to start cutting rates, said Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his speech from Jackson Hole last Friday. Mortgage rates have already moved more than 1% lower in the last four months, improving mortgage affordability and making millions of loans refinance-able.
Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points – ‘Fed Said It’
August 23, 2024
What a week! We had a huge downward revision to the BLS jobs growth figures, the Fed minutes explicitly said that a rate cut on Sept 18 was likely, and average mortgage rates moved below 6.5% (and are now 1% lower than they were a year ago).
Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points – ‘Disinflate’
August 16, 2024
Inflation (CPI & PPI) continued to ease in July, and average 30-yr mortgage rates approached 6.5%.
Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Off the Fence'
August 9, 2024
Has the Fed waited too long to start cutting rates? The unexpected climb in the July unemployment rate had the market reassessing recession risks.
Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Cut Ahead'
August 2, 2024
The Fed kept rates steady (again), but said that a rate cut on Sept 18 was definitely “on the table” given progress on inflation and the recent rise in the unemployment rate. The bond market rejoiced, helping to send average mortgage rates near 6.6%.
Talking Points
Weekend Talking Points - 'Waiting'
July 26, 2024
Would-be homebuyers seem to be holding their breath, hoping that the Fed begins cutting rates soon. Home sales have remained subdued this spring/summer. But with the inventory of homes for sale rising, buyers are regaining some negotiating power.