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Talking Points

Learn more about the MBS Highway Housing Index methodology HERE.

Weekend Talking Points - 'High Five'

February 27, 2026

Last week, average 30-yr mortgage rates dropped to 5.99% — a near 4-year low. But transaction volumes haven’t significantly picked up yet. What’s the problem? Time. Refis can be done quickly, but buying a home takes months (from the initial decision to start looking.) Plus, it’s still the low season. If rates can stay this low into spring, buying will bloom.

John Smith
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Talking Points

Weekend Talking Points - 'High Five'

February 27, 2026
Last week, average 30-yr mortgage rates dropped to 5.99% — a near 4-year low. But transaction volumes haven’t significantly picked up yet. What’s the problem? Time. Refis can be done quickly, but buying a home takes months (from the initial decision to start looking.) Plus, it’s still the low season. If rates can stay this low into spring, buying will bloom.
John Smith
•
5 min read
Talking Points

Weekend Talking Points - 'Lower'

February 20, 2026
Last week, the market decided it didn’t believe the strong January BLS jobs report — especially not in light of the huge revisions to the full-year 2025 numbers. Then on Friday we got a big drop in the January CPI (inflation). Net result: US treasury yields moved sharply lower and mortgage rates followed.
John Smith
•
5 min read
Talking Points

Weekend Talking Points - 'Unbelievable'

February 13, 2026
They did it again! After two weeks of very bond-friendly data, the BLS jobs report for January was a slap in the face: much larger-than-expected job gains and a drop in the unemployment rate. It’s really unbelievable. And I mean in both senses of the word.
John Smith
•
5 min read
Talking Points

Weekend Talking Points - 'Weak Jobs Week'

February 6, 2026
This has been one of the weakest ‘jobs week’ in several years, with multiple sources (ADP, JOLTs, Challenger) consistently pointing to a much weaker labor market. Fed rate cut probabilities are rising, and average mortgage rates remain in the low 6% range.
John Smith
•
5 min read
Talking Points

Weekend Talking Points - 'On Hold'

January 30, 2026
The Fed kept rates steady at their latest meeting, citing stubbornly high inflation and low unemployment. And Jerome Powell implied that rates might be on hold for a while. A new Fed Chairman should be announced soon (but he won’t assume the role until May). Meanwhile, more signs of improving buyer demand in the Case-Shiller home price numbers.
John Smith
•
5 min read
Talking Points

Weekend Talking Points - 'Davos Man'

January 23, 2026
December and January are two of the slowest months of the year for home sales. But the spring selling season is around the corner (things really start perking up in March), and if mortgage rates can stay in the low 6% range, activity levels should surge.
John Smith
•
5 min read
Talking Points

Weekend Talking Points - 'Early Spring'

January 16, 2026
There were many encouraging signs for the housing market this week: lower mortgage rates are boosting demand for new and existing homes, December CPI (inflation) came in lower than expected, and President Trump unveiled a number of (rough) plans to improve affordability.
John Smith
•
5 min read
Talking Points

Weekend Talking Points - 'Is 2026 the Year?'

January 9, 2026
With mortgage rates remaining in the low 6% range for several months now, transaction activity is clearly picking up. Is 2026 going to be the recovery year that we’ve been waiting for?
John Smith
•
5 min read
Talking Points

Weekend Talking Points - 'Good Data'

December 19, 2025
Jerome Powell often says that the Fed is “data dependent.” Well, the latest data clearly showed both a slowing job market and easing inflation rates. The December Fed rate cut now looks well-justified, but the market remains skeptical that the Fed will cut again on January 28.
John Smith
•
5 min read
Talking Points

Weekend Talking Points - 'Overstated'

December 12, 2025
The Fed cut short-term interest rates for the 3rd time in 2025, admitted that the BLS jobs numbers were probably “overstated,” and announced the resumption of short-term asset purchases — all good news for bond yields (and by extension, mortgage rates).
John Smith
•
5 min read
Talking Points

Weekend Talking Points - 'Canaries'

December 5, 2025
ADP’s November jobs data renewed concerns about the labor market (especially small businesses) and the economy as a whole. A rate cut on December 10 now seems likely, and average mortgage rates are approaching 6% again. Transaction volumes are starting to recover.
John Smith
•
5 min read
Talking Points

Weekend Talking Points - 'Grateful'

November 21, 2025
The government jobs data is starting to flow in, and it seems to be contradicting what we’ve been seeing from private sources like ADP. As a result, hopes are fading for a 3rd Fed rate cut on December 10.
John Smith
•
5 min read